Monday, December 28, 2009

Merry Christmas to the Markets

'Twas the day before Christmas, when all through the land

Not a trader was stirring, and isn't that grand;

The markets were recovered from the depths of despair,

In hopes that we'd never revisit that scare;

Hedge fund managers were nestled all snug in their beds,

While visions of met high water marks danced in their heads;

And mutual funds in their performance, and I on the sell side

Had finally settled down after capital raises left us just fried.

In December in the markets there arose such a clatter,

I sprang to my Bloomberg to see what was the matter.

Away to Dubai the news flew like a flash,

Reporting debt extensions, investors feared the next crash.

The moon on the breast of the Palm Island sand

Gave the luster of guarantees from the other Emirates hand,

When, what to my wondering eyes should appear,

But a wine induced flashback of the events of last year,

The year had a poor start, with this deep deep recession,

I felt at that moment we were in a Great Depression.

But more rapid than eagles the Fed programs they came,

And Bernanke whistled, and shouted, and called them by name;

Now, TAF! Now TALF! Now CAP and low rates!

On, MMIF! On AMLF! On SCAP! There’s no time for debates!

To the stress test results! To the capital shortfall!

Now raise away! Raise away! Raise away all!

As dry dollars that before the wild hurricane fly,

When they meet with a bank stock, mount to the sky,

So up to "normalized earnings" the investors they flew,

With a sleigh full of funds for bonds and equities too.

And then in a twinkling I saw in the banks

The lifting and raising as buyers closed up their ranks.

As I drew in my bear claws and was turning around,

Down the stairs all the bankers came with a bound.

They were dressed all in suits from the heads to their feet,

And their clothes were all rumpled and they really looked beat;

Huge bundles of stock they had flung on their backs,

And they looked like peddlers opening their packs.

Investors eyes -- how they twinkled! Their demand it was strong!

Their appetites whetted! They craved to be long!

These droll great big deals were drawn up in great haste,

Since the window was open there was not a moment to waste;

The bulk of these deals were held tight by the street,

And the rally it encircled the globe like a wreath;

Hybrids and credit had a nice round rally,

That extended the move for those keeping a tally.

Things rapidly felt better, a right jolly move,

That shook out the bears who were caught in their groove;

A drop in the VIX and tightening spreads,

Soon gave me to know I had nothing to dread;

Data began to improve as liquidity went straight to work,

And sent markets yet higher, then we got a small jerk,

As Dubai meant sovereign debt widened out,

Markets had a twitched, having a moment of doubt;

The Fed sprang to its sleigh, to low rates have a bow,

And away the fears flew with new highs for the Dow

So with great joy after this year fraught with great fright

I say HAPPY CHRISTMAS TO ALL AND TO ALL A GOOD-NIGHT"

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