Why I Hope Gold Falls to $1,000

Why I Hope Gold Falls to $1,000
by Jeff Clark



As a self-professed gold bug, why would I possibly want my favorite investment to fall in value? Have the long hours finally caught up with me?

Au contraire; my near-constant devotion to all things gold has only served to crystallize one of the things I really want out of this. Here's a hint.

I had lunch with a reader at a recent conference, and while talking about one of my favorite subjects - gold stocks - I asked why he was invested so heavily in them. "Greed," he said bluntly and with little hesitation. I appreciated the honesty.

Let's be frank: I'm here to make money, and so are you. And that's why I hope gold falls to $1,000 again.

Let's say Bob has taken our advice and has been storing cash. I'll use $1,000 as an example. If Bob buys Yamana Gold now, he'd get about 93 shares as I write (at $10.73 per share).

Now, let's say gold drops to $1,000, about a 10% fall from here, and due to its leverage, AUY sells off by a 2-to-1 margin, meaning 20%. So with that same $1,000, Frank, who's waited for the downturn, buys 116 shares at around $8.58. Thus, instead of owning 93 shares at $10.73, he owns 116 shares at $8.58.

When Frank sells, he doesn't just make the difference between $8.58 and $10.73 (an extra 25%), he also makes 125% on the extra 23 shares he owns if Yamana doubles in a couple years, which I expect it to. So two years from now, Bob would have $2,000, but Frank would have $2,500 because he bought more shares and at a lower price. Frank makes 25% more than Bob on the same dollar investment simply by buying when gold and gold stocks fall in price.

Got $5,000 saved up? Multiply the profit by 5. And with larger amounts, you can see we're talking serious money.

I don't know if we'll see $1,000 again or not, or if Yamana will fall that low, but I would point out that corrections in the gold price can range as high as 20% (2008 notwithstanding), so a further sell-off in price would not be out of the ordinary. A 20% correction from gold's peak at $1,212.50 on December 2 would equal $970. That's not necessarily a prediction, but it shows you that price is certainly possible.

Don't like my wish? Remember, it's called a bull market for a reason; it's not a cow market or a puppy market. It's going to try and buck you off. But a correction to $1,000 or even lower can give you the chance to buy more, cheaper. Don't view sell-offs as a bad thing but rather as an opportunity.

Bring on $1,000!

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Jeff Clark
Editor of BIG GOLD
Casey Research

Grantham remarks on Supreme Court

… and the Bad News
Supremely Extreme: Another “Day That Will Live in
Infamy”
Five Supreme Court justices today announced that not only
are corporations people and that their money is free speech
– this is old hat and a very ugly hat at that – but now, there
should be no limit to the money they spend to infl uence
political outcomes. This would be one thing if corporations
really were “democratic associations” of humans that the
Founding Fathers may have wanted to protect. They are,
instead, small oligarchies of top management. Thus, the
top management of major oil and coal companies can
decide what political outcomes they want to promote,
say, unlimited production of carbon dioxide (none of their
CEOs apparently has grandchildren!), utterly without
any approval of their decisions by the millions of actual
owners. The fi nancial power of corporations was already
in danger of overwhelming the democratic process in
Congress and this makes the damage potentially unlimited
and puts the Court’s seal of approval on it. So let’s do it in
style and have a name change. The U.C.A. has a familiar
look: The United Corporations of America!

Bear Index

Average Investor Too Bullish

By MarketWatch

ANNANDALE, Va. (MarketWatch) -- Finally, after a nearly 70% rally, a large number of bears are throwing in the towel.

And that's bad news, since it means the wall of worry that the bull market has been climbing is crumbling.


Consider the average recommended equity exposure among the shortest-term stock market timers tracked by the Hulbert Financial Digest. Over the last 24 hours it jumped another 6.5 percentage points to 65.2%.

That's the highest level since late December 2006, more than three years. As recently as early November, the average stood at just 3.2%.

A similar story is being told by the sentiment survey conducted weekly by the American Association of Individual Investors. In that survey, organization members visiting the AAII website are asked to report whether they think the stock market's trend is bullish, bearish, or neutral.

To consolidate those three percentages into a single barometer, researchers often calculate the ratio of the bullish percentage to the total percentage of those that are either bullish or bearish. That ratio currently stands at 68.2%, which is the highest level since February 2007.

Finally, consider the sentiment survey conducted weekly by Investors Intelligence, the latest of which was released this morning. That survey is based on the percentage of monitored newsletters that are bullish, bearish, or neutral.

The ratio of bulls to those either bullish or bearish now stands at 74.1%, which but for slightly higher readings in the last couple of weeks, is the highest since October 2007, the month of the stock market's all-time high.

The bottom line? Market appreciation over the coming weeks therefore will have to come without the sentiment winds blowing in stocks' sails.