Market Timing

Market timing is when you jump in and out of the market. It's basically been proven impossible. When people hear that I pulled out of the market last year, they ask me if I'm a market timer. The answer is "no".

There is a difference between market timing and getting out because you for see a terrible economy. About every thirty or forty years, the stock market completely collapses. What precedes this event? Usually stocks trade at high price to earnings ratios and low dividend yields. I have never liked to buy a stock over a PE of 15.

We are in a transformational period. Stocks will be selling at lower PEs and higher dividend yields. We have not reached the bottom!
Holmes

Oil Conference in Calgary

I'm off to a conference in Calgary on oil. I'll be bringing my coat--it's 25 degrees at night!!!!!

Some of the subjects include Peak Oil. The idea that we have been running out of oil since the 70s.

When I get back, I'll post my findings.

Holmes

Suckers' rally

People have been calling me about the recent rally in the stock market. It's a suckers' rally. Don't be fooled. Markets don't go up and down in a straight line.

Also, I've been meeting lots of folks who are interested in variable annuities. They are looking for a "sure thing". Remember, those no such thing as a sure thing.
Holmes

Event with Warren Christopher

I had the pleasure of serving as interlocutor for an event with the Chartered Financial Analysts' Society of Los Angeles with Warren Christopher. Mr. Christopher served as Secretary of State for Bill Clinton, Under Secretary for Carter, and Deputy Attorney General for LBJ. Questions ranged from our current relations in the Middle East, terrorism, to the challenges that our country faces today. Mr. Christopher was an excellent person to interview and has a wealth of experience.

Holmes

Week of March 16

It's a busy week. Tomorrow I'm serving as the interlocutor for an event with former Secretary of State, Warren Christopher. Wednesday, my television show, Money Confidential, is airing. Thursday, I'm speaking to a chamber of commerce in South Los Angeles.

In regards to investing, today the market was up about 2%. It closed negative 1/10%. Gyrations like that are bad.

I looked at a company today named Horsehead (ZINC). It's a zinc smelter that has a huge amount of cash on its balance sheet. I think it will get sold off and am not in a hurry to buy at the present time.